Robert Reich's recent post “Let the final battle begin” is a Cri-de-Coeur for the “core values of America” and the future of the nation but I think that it misses a few important elements
Firstly, the narrative that "we" (the mostly liberal, Democrat followers of his Stack) are the defenders of democracy is the same narrative that the MAGA crowd believe.
As passionate as you feel when you read his words that the future of the Union is at stake THEY FEEL THE SAME WAY.
They believe that the only way to save the USA (“their USA”) from the dark forces of the "satanic socialist Demonrats" is to install their Lord and Saviour Donald Trump as undisputed ruler over their white, Christian nation.
The fact that you believe they are wrong (and I'd agree that the objective evidence shows they're wrong, nay, that they are delusional) doesn't matter.
The same anger and fury that burns in you to ensure the survival of democracy and the Union (and, I'd argue, save liberal democracy world-wide, the global economy and the fight to adapt to climate change) burns just as brightly within them. Until you understand who you're fighting and why THEY are fighting you risk pursuing the wrong strategy and thus losing the war.
Secondly, with this new, deep, understanding of your opponents, ask yourself “if (when) Trump wins do you intend to stop fighting against autocracy and for democracy in America?”. If the answer is no, and because you now know how your opponents feel, do you expect them to stop fighting too?
Do you expect Trump to stop pushing forward his narrow self interests if he loses the 2024 election? He's a narcissist. He's not going to stop until he dies of old age or dementia's hold becomes too apparent to deny. Even then, Trump is and never was the puppet-master here. He's a useful idiot (literally… he's rat cunning, sure, but he's not intelligent enough to win or govern on his own). The hyper-conservative forces that bankroll him (both foreign and domestic) will remain.
So that's the third point, then. The 2024 election is not the war, it's just a battle.
(Side note - martial metaphors are useful but they are part of the problem, too. Using martial metaphors normalises violence when this conflict eventually goes kinetic).
The deep economic, structural and racial issues that exist inside the USA are the root causes that have created fertile ground for Trump's delusions to fester and grow. Your opponents believe that they need to "save" the country because THE CURRENT SYSTEM ISN'T WORKING FOR THEM.
There is a REASON Trump's heartland is the areas that have suffered as agriculture and extractive industries mechanised and manufacturers moved jobs to lower cost countries. Unemployment, crumbling infrastructure, sub-standard education, lack of opportunity and social mobility etc. They are not all "ignorant, stupid, hicks" that just need to be "educated" as to the "facts" as to why Trump is a clear and present danger to the nation or as to why things are better now under Biden or the current political status quo. They have decades, generations, of evidence to the contrary… of being screwed over time and time again. Seen through their lens their decision to support Trump is a rational economic and political calculation based on a belief that ANY change is better than their lived history over the past 50 years.
Yes, We "know" Trump isn't the answer and that he is fact is the privileged embodiment of many of the forces that have destroyed their communities, local economies and hope for the future. Trump's well documented history of screwing over small businesses and local contractors makes it clear he despises the working class men and women who support him. But they don’t care.
Trump is an avatar of hope, just like FDR represented hope with the "New Deal" or JFKs Camelot or Obama's vision of change represented hope for different communities at different times in history.
Trump is their Lincoln, their MLK, and whilst we can't begin to comprehend the levels of cognitive dissonance needed to maintain that belief in the face of the overwhelming evidence of his venal nature, what we think about him doesn't matter.
Until the people that oppose Trump understand this emotional connection - until you link how YOU feel about whatever political or civil rights icons you revere to how THEY feel about Trump you will lose, if not the battle, but certainly the war.
These are not irrational people who just need to be shown the light or the truth of Trump's venality, his criminality and manifest unsuitability to play any role in American political discourse.
Faced with over 50 years of decline in their living standards, economic prospects, rising infant mortality, falling life expectancy, the dissolution of their communities, the opioid crisis and the hundreds of other changes both quotidian and monumental that have impacted their lives, and eroded their hope, their only dream is for something, anything, to change.
So when someone comes along and offers them hope (and exploits existing fault lines of racism, misogyny and xenophobia) to tell them that "it's not your fault" they WANT to believe. They want to believe that they are "good people" who have suffered at the hands of the socialist "Deep State" because most of them ARE good people in their daily lives and they HAVE suffered at the hands of global and economic trends they don't understand.
The fact that those same forces that have, demonstrably and uncontestably, had negative impacts on their lives and communities, have also bought them cheap smart phones, affordable Samsung 55" flatscreen TVs, and cheap cars, has never been explained to them because of the complete failure of the political system since Reagan, and since and "trickle down economics" became economic orthodoxy.
One of the key roles of politics and government in a democracy with a capitalist economy is to both explain (contextualise} these types of macro-economic and socio-political forces AND to implement programmes to ameliorate their impacts on the worst affected parts of society. This has never been the role or duty of the "free market" or "business" and no amount of tax cuts to transfer wealth upwards in society can or will ever change that.
Governments exist for a reason, despite what the most fervent Libertarians or Anarchists believe, and they exist to ensure that all citizens enjoy safety, security and a reasonable share of the "common wealth". I would argue that this duty includes the need to foster "hope" - a belief at a fundamental level that tomorrow has a chance of being better than today, and that we hand over the society (and world) to each successive generation better than we found it. And if you no longer believe that, for many objectively true reasons, and you've "lost hope", then you're ripe for indoctrination.
If you're bitter and angry and you've lost hope, and you can't articulate the rage you feel, nor understand why this is happening to you or your community because you're "good people"… and then a messianic figure offers you "change they can believe in" - change that's rooted in anger and violence and desire to lash out against these "dark forces" that "oppress you" - then you are going to believe.
The fact that this situation was able to develop was down to the utter failure of the political classes, on either side of the political spectrum, to do their job. They failed to govern in the best interests of the people in favour of their own self-interest and those of their donors and the special interest groups that dominate political discourse (ref the NRA for example). Now we are all paying the price for their failure.
These are the same factors that led to Brexit in the UK, another vote against self-interest that was sold to the same strata of society as the solution to all their woes. This, in a society that has much stronger social safety net, better health care, less structural racism etc than the USA.
Authoritarian anti-democratic forces are on the rise everywhere, even in countries with far less structural issues that the USA. The mountain the USA needs to climb to lance the boil of the deep (valid) unhappiness of how people feel about their lives and their share of the USAs immense wealth is a tall, tall mountain. It took generations to get to this state, and it's probably a multi-generational journey to get out.
Trumpisn is a symptom, not the disease.
2024 is just a battle, not the war.
Major structural changes are needed to save US democracy. In fact, major structural changes are needed to MAKE democracy (and Capitalism) the solution and not part of the problem in many countries worldwide. The polarised gridlock of US politics for decades has impeded progress in tackling these systemic underlying issues, not helped address them.
Finally, what happens if (when) you lose and Trump gets elected to his perpetual second term?
We've already established that the "fight" will continue regardless of who wins but democratic struggle is meaningless against autocrats.
Trump will politicise all branches of government and the military and appoint thousands of loyalist to positions to ensure unitary control. This isn't fantasy, these plans are already in place and well documented. There will be no "free and fair" election in 2028. There will either be a Putinesque-style ballot stuffing exercise where Trump will win a historic 3rd term with 97% of the popular vote (the required constitutional change will pass with the same mandate) or elections will be postponed indefinitely due to the ongoing "state of emergency" that's already seen posse comitatus suspended and both regular military and Trump loyalist militias controlling the streets.
Will you move to a "Blue state" if you currently live in a "Red" one?
Will we see one of the greatest mass migrations in US history since "Westward! Ho!'?
Do you think you'll be able to take your money with you, or will Red states impose capital controls to stop money flowing out of them? (BTW this is common practice in countries Like Zimbabwe. You can leave, but your money cannot).
Will local or regional banks fail if capital controls are NOT put in place? (Should you be moving your money NOW just in case?).
Will you be allowed to sell your assets (eg houses) and businesses if you want to move out of state? If yes, will you be forced to sell them to Trump-aligned proto-oligarchs (all the Russian oligarchs made their money by snapping up formerly state-owned assets for cents on the rouble)? Would capital controls be put in place at a national level to stop businesses and individual moving money offshore to safer, more stable economies? If all capital outflows need to be "approved" (by Trumpist functionaries) how would this immense slowdown of the trillions of dollars that move around the world at lightspeed every day affect the global economy?
Will the inevitable economic chaos that would follow a Trump victory be used as an excuse to privatise and sell off other state and national assets not to the highest bidder, but the most loyal?
Will the nation's best and brightest (and most economically mobile) young people remain in the USA or will they join the best and brightest of the Russian and Ukrainian diaspora in places like Lithuania, Estonia or Kazakhstan? Will Canada implement a citizenship fast track to attract talent and capital north? Would the border north remain open (we already know the southern border would close)?
More importantly, would the "coastal elite" Blue states secede politically or economically?
Would you support that, accepting that there will never again be a "more perfect Union"? That the dream that was once the USA is now dead?
How do you think the Trumpist government would react to this? How will the economy react?
If the US economy crumbles (taking the global economy with it) and people see their retirement plans, 401Ks and pensions vanish with it, if there is soaring unemployment and government services cease to function how many people will "switch sides" to Trumpism as they yearn for the stability he promises them and, given his hands control the levers of power, perhaps only he CAN give them, as long as they submit? This has ALWAYS been the root of "strong man" authoritarian politics.
"Only I can restore peace, but you have to give up some freedoms (just for now, of course) whilst I crush these anti-democratic (AnTiFa socialists, obviously) to restore order. Trust me and all will be great, again".
What happens when dissent is suppressed with bullets not tear gas and flex cuffs? The Kent State shootings were in 1970, only 53 years ago (within my lifetime) so it's naive to think history cannot repeat itself.
How long before those fighting for the restoration of representative democracy are TRULY the minority as the majority just seek to find a safe place under the new Authority?
How will the rest of the world react as the USA devolves into a (declared or undeclared) civil war?
The USA controls many core systems like GPS, DNS (the domain name system that controls the Internet), credit card systems like Visa and Mastercard etc, and the US Dollar is the reserve currency that commodities like oil are priced and traded in. Many nations are unhappy about this NOW in a time of (relative) stability and would no doubt push to break these monopolies if the US devolves into chaos.
What happens of NATO is dissolved (let alone if Trump further panders to Putin, Xi, Orban etc)? Would US military materiel based in Europe or worldwide be allowed to be repatriated back to CONUS or would it be impounded (seized) by France, Germany, Poland, Japan, Australia etc?
How would a stable genius narcissistic President react to that? Given that any US military leaders who remain true to their oaths to the Constitution would have already been replaced by Trump loyalists would Trump order strikes on "disloyal" former NATO allies? Remember, to Trump the only loyalty that matters is PERSONAL loyalty to him, not loyalty to oaths, ideals or nation.
Ukraine would, of course, be cut off from US military and financial aid with potentially devastating results for their country. European allies would try to fill the gaps but Europe has neither the stockpiles or the defence production capability to fill the gap without US resources (parts, chips, blueprints, etc) or seizing US materiel as discussed earlier. This ignores the impact of a resurgent Trumpian authoritarian dictatorship (it wouldn't be a "Presidency" in anything but name only) on reactionary right-wing authoritarian political parties (and governments) in Europe. Not all of them support Ukraine, NATO or liberal democracy either, so the ramifications for the EU and peace in Europe are immense.
All of this plays out against the other macro-economic and geopolitical forces at play worldwide - the increasingly apparent impact of climate change, the potential of AI, the impact of Chinese internal politics on adventurism in South-East Asia, the unstable politics of a weakened Putin in Russia, the inevitable decline of oil revenues in the Gulf and the impact of that on Gulf politics, the growing instability of Pakistan, the incrasingly repressive Hindu-centric policies of Modi in India, the endemic corruption in Africa (and the fact that some African nations are already effectively Chinese vassal states) and the rise of authoritarianism is South America.
To take one concrete example, if parts of Saharan Africa are rendered uninhabitable for humans due to rising temperatures the inevitable wave of mass-migration northward towards the Mediterranean will have enormous impact on Europe and European politics. Ditto for the potentially hundreds of millions of people who could be displaced in Bangladesh if country-wide flooding due to increased cyclonic activity becomes an annual occurrence.
All of this is to say that the USA, and the world, is resting on a knife’s edge at this point in time and we are waiting, watching, to see if the rise of a hubristic narcissist, empowered by his enablers, will be the match that lights a conflagration that has the potential to engulf the entire world.
But we don't get a vote on a second Trump term, only you the citizens of the United States, do, so please vote, and vote wisely.
And remember, that even if he doesn't win re-election he's not going to fade away, and the only solution to the "Trump Problem" is to cure the underlying disease, not just treat the symptoms, by creating a farer and more equitable nation for all.
There are still literally billions of people around the world who believe in the dream of that "shining nation on the hill" and "that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth" to be replaced by authoritarianism.
We just need you to believe it, too.